Open RAN technology, once seen as a promising innovation in telecommunications, faced a tough year in 2024, as observed by Dell’Oro Group. The market saw impressive growth between 2019 and 2022, running at a “torrid pace,” according to Stephan Pongratz, Dell’Oro’s VP of RAN market research. However, that growth came to a halt in 2023 and further dwindled throughout 2024, resulting in a revenue decline of approximately half a billion dollars.
A broader slow-down in network investments contributed to this downturn, affecting not only Open RAN but also the virtualized RAN market, which experienced a 15% decrease from the first to the third quarter of 2024. Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism for the long-term future of Open RAN. Pongratz notes, “The long-term trajectory is positive, but the short-term picture remains blurry.” Growth could resume if 5G activity increases in regions like the U.S. and Japan or through other modernization efforts that utilize the latest Open RAN interfaces.
While Dell’Oro predicts that Open RAN will capture a mid-single-digit percentage of the 2024 RAN market and 8-10% of overall network technology revenues, the immediate market conditions remain complex. Comparatively, Mobile Experts echoed these findings in an October report. They described the market trajectory as “the most bizarre market growth profile ever seen in the wireless market.” They acknowledged that although greenfield Open RAN deployments have plateaued, future growth may shift towards brownfield projects. This shift would align with a single-software strategy, as exemplified by AT&T’s use of multiple open radio vendors alongside Ericsson’s software.
The broader RAN market has also faced a year-over-year decline for six consecutive quarters, with an overall decrease of 10-20% reported by Dell’Oro. These figures underscore ongoing challenges, characterized by operators adjusting their capital expenditures and dealing with issues like excess capacity and capex fatigue. Nevertheless, an anticipated modest recovery is expected in 2025, though China’s RAN market is forecasted to continue its decline.
